homestate florida

By Ben Everidge for Thomas

May 14, 2025

florida deserves to be more than a punchline…

Florida's political landscape is undergoing significant shifts as the 2026 races for governor and U.S. Senate approach. An analysis of the current dynamics in the Sunshine State yields some interesting political tidbits:

Governor Ron DeSantis and Republican Legislative Tensions

Governor Ron DeSantis is experiencing notable friction with Republican leaders in the Florida Legislature. The governor’s push for aggressive fiscal reforms, such as eliminating property taxes and implementing a "Doge-style" efficiency task force, has met resistance from GOP lawmakers who view these proposals as impractical and potentially detrimental to essential state services.

Additionally, DeSantis's approach to governance, which has been marked over his two terms in office by limited engagement with legislators and unilateral decision-making, has strained relationships. House Speaker Daniel Perez and Senate President Ben Albritton have expressed frustration over being sidelined, particularly during special sessions called by the governor without prior consultation.

This internal discord is further complicated by political ambitions within the party, as figures like Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson emerge as potential gubernatorial candidates, challenging DeSantis's influence and perhaps positioning his wife, Casey DeSantis, as his heir apparent.

Florida legislative leaders appear, for the moment at least, to be winning the escalating conflict with Governor Ron DeSantis over tax policy, budgeting priorities, and the direction of state governance. This conflict is rooted in both ideological and practical disagreements, and it's becoming a defining feature of Florida's 2026 political environment.

Ashley Moody's U.S. Senate Appointment and Voter Perception

Ashley Moody's appointment to the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Marco Rubio places her in a prominent position ahead of the 2026 special election. Her close alignment with DeSantis and former President Donald Trump, evident in her support for conservative policies and legal actions, cements her status among the Republican base.

However, this association with DeSantis and Trump may also polarize more moderate voters in the state. While her conservative credentials appeal to the MAGA GOP electorate, they could alienate moderates and independents, especially if controversies surrounding DeSantis's administration persist. Moody's ability to navigate these dynamics will be crucial in securing a full term in the Senate.

Jason Pizzo and David Jolly in the Gubernatorial Race

State Senator Jason Pizzo's departure from the Democratic Party to run as an independent for governor introduces a centrist alternative in the race. Citing dissatisfaction with both major parties, Pizzo aims to attract independent voters, who represent a significant portion of Florida's electorate.

Former Congressman David Jolly's recent registration as a Democrat and potential gubernatorial bid further diversifies the field. Known for his centrist positions and criticism of Trump-era policies, Jolly could appeal to moderate Democrats and independents seeking pragmatic leadership.

The presence of strong independent and moderate candidates could fragment the vote, potentially benefiting the Republican nominee if the opposition remains divided.

Challenges Facing Florida

The current political climate in Florida presents several challenges:

• Intra-Party Divisions: The rift between DeSantis and Republican legislators may hinder cohesive policymaking and affect the party's image among voters.

• Electoral Fragmentation: The emergence of independent and moderate candidates could split the vote, complicating electoral outcomes and potentially leading to victories with narrow pluralities.

• Voter Polarization: Strong alignments with national figures like Trump may energize base voters but risk alienating moderates, affecting turnout and support in key demographics.

• Policy Uncertainty: Ongoing disputes within the ruling party could stall legislative progress on critical issues, impacting governance and public trust.

As the 2026 elections approach, Florida's political landscape remains fluid, with internal party dynamics and emerging candidates reshaping traditional alignments. Monitoring these developments will be essential for understanding the state's future political trajectory.

Key Budget and Tax Challenges Between DeSantis and the Legislature

DeSantis's "No Property Tax" Vision:

• The Proposal: DeSantis has floated eliminating property taxes in favor of alternative revenue mechanisms, such as expanded consumption taxes (e.g., sales taxes), inspired by libertarian and crypto-economic models (including his so-called “Doge-style” efficiency agenda).

• The Legislative Response: GOP lawmakers have balked at this idea. Both House Speaker Daniel Perez and Senate President Ben Albritton are concerned that such a move would:

• Undermine public education, which is largely funded through local property taxes.

• Create instability in municipal and county budgeting.

• Be politically toxic with seniors and homeowners, who make up large portions of Florida's voter base.

“Efficiency” Cuts and Budget Austerity

• DeSantis’s Push: He’s championing broad efficiency cuts to state programs and agencies - an attempt to downsize government functions in line with his ideological leanings.

• The Legislative Pushback:

• Lawmakers argue these cuts are ideologically driven, not data-driven.

• Many agencies are already operating on tight margins, and proposed cuts could gut services like public health, infrastructure, emergency management, and environmental protection.

• Tensions are rising as these proposals are seen as performative rather than effective governance.

Centralization vs. Home Rule

• The Trend: DeSantis continues a pattern of centralizing power in Tallahassee, limiting local government authority over taxes, zoning, and spending. 

• The Legislative Risk: Many Republican lawmakers represent districts where local governments are popular. They fear blowback from voters upset by state-level interference, especially in traditionally Republican suburbs and mid-sized cities.

Revenue Shortfalls & Budget Gaps 

Florida’s lack of a state income tax means it relies heavily on:

• Sales taxes (which can fluctuate with tourism and consumer confidence).

• Real estate transaction taxes.

• Federal funds (e.g., Medicaid, disaster aid).

Legislative leaders are now quietly concerned that Florida’s budget may face structural shortfalls due to:

• Slowing population growth compared to earlier projections.

• Strain on infrastructure from climate adaptation, housing shortages, and an aging population.

• Risk of overpromising tax cuts that can't be offset without major service reductions.

Transparency and Process Complaints

• Legislators have complained that DeSantis’s office is bypassing standard budget procedures and communication norms.

• Budgets are often being revised or announced without legislative input.

• Special sessions have been called without prior consensus-building, leaving even GOP leaders out of the loop.                       

The Political and Electoral Implications

For DeSantis:

• He risks becoming politically isolated, even within his own party.

• His “ideological purity” on budget issues may please national conservative media but is alienating pragmatic local leaders.

For Legislative Leaders:

• They’re walking a tightrope: pushing back against DeSantis without appearing disloyal to the Republican base.

• Some are positioning themselves for statewide office by presenting themselves as “sane conservatives” who prioritize results over headlines.

For Voters: 

• Suburban and independent voters, especially in swing counties like Seminole, Pinellas, and Duval, may see this dysfunction as evidence that Florida Republicans have overreached.

• Seniors, local government officials, teachers, and civil servants are growing restless, especially if budget cuts affect services they rely on.

What This Means

It means, in what appears to be red state Florida, there's an opening for a reform-minded independent or moderate candidate to champion:

• Responsible budgeting.

• Local control.

• Investment in services that matter to working families and retirees.

A leader who listens - someone focused on smart tax policy, not culture wars or crypto-economic experiments – will prove popular in the 2026 elections.

• There's also an opportunity to build coalitions with mayors, county officials, and school board leaders frustrated by Tallahassee's overreach.

Florida Man Perception

A strategic breakdown of how Florida’s current reputation - infamously symbolized by the “Florida Man” meme and a series of high-profile political controversies – shows that Florida’s more extreme politicians are causing serious reputational, economic, and cultural damage across key sectors:

Politics Impacted by National Mockery Undermines Florida’s Credibility

The Damage:

• A loss of influence in national policy debates: Florida is increasingly perceived as ideologically extreme, erratic, or unserious due to controversial laws (book bans, “Don’t Say Gay” legislation, migrant flights, etc.).

• Alienation of swing voters and moderates: Independent and centrist voters, especially those relocating to Florida, may feel politically homeless, disengaged, or even ashamed.

• Leadership not taken seriously: Even when leaders try to champion serious policy, their credibility is undercut by the "Florida punchline" image.

The Strategic Implication:

• Voters and donors from outside Florida (including presidential primary voters and national funders) discount Florida politicians as unserious, extreme, or fringe.

Business and Economic Development: Brand Damage Hurts Growth

The Damage:

• Talent and capital flight: Top-tier talent, especially in tech, education, healthcare, and creative industries, is choosing states with more inclusive and forward-looking reputations (e.g., North Carolina, Colorado, Texas).

• Investor and corporate hesitation: National and international businesses may hesitate to expand in Florida due to unpredictable policies or fears of political backlash from their customers and employees.

• Tourism & hospitality risk: Controversial headlines deter international travelers and some U.S. families who see Florida as politically hostile or unstable.

The Strategic Implication: Florida risks losing its competitive advantage not just to other states - but to entire regions- especially in sectors like clean energy, biotech, and education-tech.

Education: Culture Wars Harm Learning and Reputation

The Damage:

• National ridicule of schools and colleges: Censorship battles, anti-DEI moves, and headline-grabbing firings (e.g., New College takeovers) send a message that Florida's schools are political battlegrounds rather than centers of learning.

• Brain drain of top faculty and students: Universities are losing prestige, accreditation concerns are mounting, and out-of-state families are steering their students elsewhere.

• Public school morale and enrollment drop: Teachers are leaving or refusing to relocate to Florida due to censorship laws and lack of trust in state leadership. 

The Strategic Implication: Florida’s long-term economy will suffer as its education system declines in both talent development and global credibility.

Culture and Identity: “Florida Man” Meme Becomes Self-Fulfilling

The Damage:

• Stereotyping of Floridians: National media portray Floridians as reckless, ignorant, or unstable, hurting the state’s cultural prestige.

• The undermining of civic pride: Residents, especially younger generations, may disengage from civic life or stop believing Florida can lead nationally.

• Artistic and intellectual exile: Writers, artists, and filmmakers often skip Florida tours or withdraw from the state altogether, shrinking its cultural footprint.

The Strategic Implication:

• Cultural isolation becomes real.

• Florida loses its seat at the American table of influence in music, literature, education, and film.

The Conclusion

Florida is at risk of being nationally branded as unserious, unstable, and unworthy of investment or trust. This isn't just a media problem.  It's a strategic, long-term crisis with political, economic, and cultural consequences.

Fixing Florida

Florida’s reputation can be repaired and its future assured by taking the following recommended steps:

1. Reclaim the narrative: The winning candidate for Governor and U.S. Senate must position their platform as the “grown-up in the room,” focused on restoring Florida’s dignity, professionalism, and civic leadership.

2. Mean it: That winning candidate cannot just talk a good game.

3. Florida needs to be rebranded through substance: Promoting bold but sensible solutions - on jobs, education, public safety, and clean growth – will make Florida known for leading, not lagging.

4. Highlight everyday Floridians, not headlines: Center their campaign on hard-working families, small business owners, students, teachers, and veterans - not the extremes.

5. Introduce a counter-meme: Use humor with purpose. Flip the “Florida Man” idea on its head with a creative campaign showing the real men and women of Florida - smart, resilient, and solution-oriented.

Florida deserves to be more than a punchline.

Also available from Thomas

The Florida Delegation Rankings

The Late, Great State of Florida?

The Sunshine State

Dissecting DeSantis