homestate Vermont
By Ben Everidge for Thomas
Photo Credit: Vermont Vacations
Vermont at the Crossroads: 10 Issues That Will Define the green mountain state’s Future
“Vermont sells itself as the most independent state in America. But behind the town meetings and mountain charm, an aging workforce, housing shortages, and climate shocks threaten its way of life.”
- Ben Everidge
Vermont is America’s most rural state and one of its most independent-minded. With a tradition of town meetings, citizen governance, and fierce local identity, it has often led the way on progressive policies while maintaining its small-state character. Yet Vermont now faces mounting pressures: an aging population, a housing crisis, climate threats, and fiscal realities that challenge its idyllic image. The Green Mountain State must decide whether it can preserve its values while adapting to a changing world.
1. The 2026 Governor’s Race and Political Balance
Governor Phil Scott, a moderate Republican in a heavily Democratic state, has been one of America’s most popular governors. But his eventual departure will test whether Vermont continues to embrace pragmatic leadership or tilts fully toward progressive dominance. Independents will remain the key force in shaping the state’s political future.
2. Aging Population and Workforce Shortages
Vermont has one of the oldest populations in the nation. Workforce shortages in healthcare, education, and skilled trades are straining the state. Younger Vermonters often leave for opportunities elsewhere, while retirees tend to stay. Without bold action to attract and retain workers, Vermont risks economic stagnation.
3. Housing Affordability and Supply Crisis
Home prices and rents have surged, driven by limited supply, pandemic-related relocations, and an increase in second-home ownership. Middle- and working-class Vermonters are being priced out of their own communities. Zoning reform, affordable housing investments, and local resistance to development will shape the state’s future livability.
4. Climate Change and Environmental Vulnerability
Vermont prides itself on its natural beauty and environmental ethic, but climate change is testing its resilience. Flooding, like the devastating storms in 2023, exposed vulnerabilities in infrastructure and communities. Protecting the Green Mountains while adapting to a changing climate is both an economic and existential challenge.
5. Agriculture, Dairy, and Rural Economy
Vermont’s dairy industry, once a central part of its economy and identity, continues to struggle with declining prices, farm closures, and stringent environmental regulations. Diversification into organic farming, craft beer, and agritourism shows promise, but rural communities remain fragile. Balancing tradition and innovation is critical for Vermont’s agricultural future.
6. Healthcare Access and Costs
Vermont has attempted bold reforms, including a failed single-payer effort, but healthcare costs remain high and access uneven, especially in rural areas. Hospital finances are under strain, and mental health services are unable to meet demand. Policymakers must decide whether Vermont can again lead in reform or fall further behind.
7. Education Funding and Demographic Strains
Vermont’s small schools are facing declining enrollment, particularly in rural areas, while costs continue to rise. Consolidation efforts spark local resistance, reflecting the tension between fiscal responsibility and community identity. Education policy will determine whether Vermont can maintain quality schools while adapting to demographic realities.
8. Tourism and Economic Diversification
Tourism is a major driver of Vermont’s economy, from skiing in Stowe to foliage season in the fall. Yet reliance on seasonal industries leaves the state vulnerable to economic shocks and climate shifts. Diversifying into renewable energy, remote work hubs, and creative industries could broaden opportunities.
9. Fiscal Policy and Tax Returns
Vermont’s high taxes fund generous services, but critics argue they drive away businesses and young families. Balancing fiscal responsibility with social commitments is a constant tension. As costs rise, the state must confront whether its model is sustainable in the long run.
10. Independent Identity and Civic Tradition
Vermont is home to America’s most famous independent, Senator Bernie Sanders, and nearly half of the state’s voters identify outside the two major parties. This civic tradition of independence shapes governance at every level, from local town meetings to national politics. Whether Vermont can sustain this tradition in an era of national polarization remains an open question.
The Thomas Take
Vermont is a state of striking beauty, strong values, and civic independence, yet it is also one under quiet strain. Aging demographics, climate threats, and housing shortages pose significant challenges to its future. If Vermont can modernize its economy, strengthen its resilience, and remain true to its independent spirit, it will continue to be a model of small-state governance. If not, it risks becoming a cautionary tale of a state that couldn’t adapt quickly enough. For independents, Vermont remains a beacon of civic engagement, a reminder that small voices can still have a significant impact on outcomes.
To learn more about Vermont’s issues, read: